Polzin, Robert and Müller, Annette and Rust, Henning W. and Névir, Peter and Koltai, Péter
(2022)
*Direct Bayesian model reduction of smaller scale convective activity conditioned on large-scale dynamics.*
Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 29
(1).
pp. 37-52.

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Official URL: https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-29-37-2022

## Abstract

Abstract. We pursue a simplified stochastic representation of smaller scale convective activity conditioned on large scale dynamics in the atmosphere. For identifying a Bayesian model describing the relation of different scales we use a probabilistic approach (Gerber and Horenko, 2017) called Direct Bayesian Model Reduction (DBMR). The convective available potential energy (CAPE) is applied as large scale flow variable combined with a subgrid smaller scale time series for the vertical velocity. We found a probabilistic relation of CAPE and vertical up- and downdraft for day and night. The categorization is based on the5 conservation of total probability. This strategy is part of a development process for parametrizations in models of atmospheric dynamics representing the effective influence of unresolved vertical motion on the large scale flows. The direct probabilistic approach provides a basis for further research of smaller scale convective activity conditioned on other possible large scale drivers.

Item Type: | Article |
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Subjects: | Mathematical and Computer Sciences > Mathematics > Applied Mathematics |

Divisions: | Department of Mathematics and Computer Science > Institute of Mathematics > BioComputing Group |

ID Code: | 2588 |

Deposited By: | Monika Drueck |

Deposited On: | 27 Aug 2021 13:03 |

Last Modified: | 10 Mar 2022 07:29 |

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