Estimating exit rate for rare event dynamical systems by extrapolation

Abstract

In this article we present an idea to speed up the sampling exit of rates from metastable molecular conformations. The idea is based on flattening the energy landscape by a global transformation which decreases the energy barrier. In this matter we create different energy surfaces in which we sample the exit rate and use these to extrapolate the exit rate for the original potential. Because of the lower energy barrier the sampling is computationally cheaper and also the variance of the estimators for the exit rate in the transformed energy landscape is smaller.