Repository: Freie Universit├Ąt Berlin, Math Department

Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes

Fischer, M. and Rust, H.W. and Ulbrich, U. (2016) Seasonal Cycle in German Daily Precipitation Extremes. Meteorologische Zeitschrift . pp. 1-11. ISSN 0941-2948 (Submitted)


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The seasonal cycle of extreme precipitation in Germany is investigated by fitting statistical models to monthly maxima of daily precipitation sums for 2,865 rain gauges. The basis is a non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution variation of location and scale parameters. The negative log-likelihood serves as the forecast error for a cross validation to select adequate orders of the harmonic functions for each station. For nearly all gauges considered, the seasonal model is more appropriate to estimate return levels on a monthly scale than a stationary GEV used for individual months. The 100-year return-levels show the influence of cyclones in the western, and convective events in the eastern part of Germany. In addition to resolving the seasonality, we use a simulation study to show that annual return levels can be estimated more precisely from a monthly-resolved seasonal model than from a stationary model based on annual maxima.

Item Type:Article
Additional Information:SFB 1114 Preprint 12/2016
Subjects:Mathematical and Computer Sciences > Mathematics > Applied Mathematics
ID Code:2147
Deposited By: Silvia Hoemke
Deposited On:07 Dec 2017 11:17
Last Modified:08 Dec 2017 09:51

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