Repository: Freie Universität Berlin, Math Department

Memory-Based Reduced Modelling and Data-Based Estimation of Opinion Spreading

Wulkow, Niklas and Koltai, Péter and Schütte, Ch. (2021) Memory-Based Reduced Modelling and Data-Based Estimation of Opinion Spreading. Journal of Nonlinear Science, 31 . ISSN 1432-1467 (online)

Full text not available from this repository.

Official URL:


We investigate opinion dynamics based on an agent-based model and are interested in predicting the evolution of the percentages of the entire agent population that share an opinion. Since these opinion percentages can be seen as an aggregated observation of the full system state, the individual opinions of each agent, we view this in the framework of the Mori–Zwanzig projection formalism. More specifically, we show how to estimate a nonlinear autoregressive model (NAR) with memory from data given by a time series of opinion percentages, and discuss its prediction capacities for various specific topologies of the agent interaction network. We demonstrate that the inclusion of memory terms significantly improves the prediction quality on examples with different network topologies.

Item Type:Article
Subjects:Physical Sciences > Physics > Physics not elsewhere classified
Mathematical and Computer Sciences > Mathematics > Mathematical Modelling
Divisions:Department of Mathematics and Computer Science > Institute of Mathematics > BioComputing Group
ID Code:2635
Deposited By: BioComp Admin
Deposited On:09 Nov 2021 10:06
Last Modified:09 Nov 2021 10:06

Repository Staff Only: item control page